How the simulation works
Each simulated challenge starts at your account size. Every trade is a win (with your win rate) or a loss. A win adds risk × R:R; a loss subtracts your risk, measured as a fixed percentage of the starting balance — the way most prop traders size.
A run passes when equity reaches the profit target. It fails if equity falls below the max overall loss level, or drops more than the daily limit below that day's starting balance. With a time limit, runs that haven't finished in time also fail.
Expectancy
Positive expectancy means you make money over many trades. But a positive edge can still fail a challenge if the risk per trade is too high for the drawdown limits — that's what the risk table shows.
Losing streak odds
Streak chances are calculated exactly, not simulated: the probability of seeing at least that many losses in a row somewhere in 100 trades at your win rate.
FAQ
What risk per trade gives the best chance of passing?
It depends on your edge, but for most traders it is between 0.5% and 1%. Higher risk passes faster when it works, but the max-loss limit is hit far more often. Check the risk table for your numbers.
What is risk of ruin?
Risk of ruin is the probability of losing enough to end the account. In a prop challenge, "ruin" is hitting the daily or max loss limit before reaching the profit target.
How many losses in a row are normal?
More than most traders expect. At a 45% win rate there is about a 73% chance of at least one streak of 6 losses in 100 trades, and roughly a coin-flip chance of 7 in a row. Size so your expected worst streak stays well inside your max loss limit.
Does stopping after 2 losses a day help?
It protects you from the daily limit but doesn't change your edge. Try the "Stop for the day" setting and watch the daily-loss failures drop.
Are the results guaranteed?
No. The simulation assumes your win rate and R:R stay constant and trades are independent. Real trading has bad days, tilt and changing markets. Use it to compare risk levels, not as a promise.